Overview
- Officials confirmed on Sunday that the Met Office reports this El Niño has already surpassed previous events and preliminary Niño 3.4 readings are around 3.2°C above average.
- Forecasters say the extra ocean heat is likely to shift weather patterns toward a wetter, stormier autumn and a milder early winter across the UK and northwest Europe.
- NOAA research and Met Office analysis link very strong El Niños to a higher probability of polar vortex weakening and Sudden Stratospheric Warming, which can increase the chance of late-winter cold snaps but do not make them certain.
- Early impacts are already being seen: India’s monsoon has weakened, threatening harvests and hydropower, and California is preparing for major Pacific-driven storms that could raise flood and sea-level risks.
- Utilities and media are advising simple preparedness steps—store at least three days of food and medicines, check home heating and insulation, and check vehicles—to reduce the chance of cascading effects on food, energy and services.