Overview
- The cabinet-approved 2025 pension report points to a 3.73% rise in July 2026, roughly 4.75% in 2027, total gains of about 45–47% by 2039, and a contribution rate climbing toward roughly 21.2%, with reserves at €51.9 billion.
- Around 18 young Union MPs declare the bill unacceptable, threatening the coalition’s majority for the Bundestag vote as leaders explore options such as a companion declaration, potential timing tweaks, and an early-start Rentenkommission.
- Kanzleramtschef Thorsten Frei calls the draft passable and ties it to a reform process in a Rentenkommission reporting by summer 2026, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz pledges to set up the commission this year with critics involved.
- Employers and economists warn of heavy long‑term costs; economist Martin Werding urges shelving the post‑2031 level pledge and Mütterrente, limiting the Aktivrente, and shifting gradually toward more funded pension pillars.
- A contentious sentence in Bärbel Bas’s draft stating the pension level would remain about one point higher after 2031 intensifies the fight, as SPD figures defend the clause, some CDU labor MPs back the bill, and Die Linke weighs conditional support.