Overview
- Internal calculations for the labour ministry’s draft put 2026 savings at about €86 million, far short of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s roughly €5 billion target for basic income cuts.
- Analyses indicate the goal would require hundreds of thousands to exit benefits through work, with scenarios ranging from around 588,000 individuals to about 310,000 households leaving the rolls.
- Economic forecasts point to modest growth of about 1.3% next year and little change in joblessness, making large employment gains an uncertain route to rapid fiscal savings.
- A new IAB study reports that health‑focused coaching within subsidized jobs is linked to better self‑reported health and could raise employability, yet providers warn jobcenter integration budgets are too tight to scale such support.
- The government has approved tougher sanctions for repeated missed jobcenter appointments, and a separate legal study argues full payment stops can be constitutional, while critics caution the measures risk hitting vulnerable recipients more than deliberate non‑cooperators.