Overview

• First-half 2025 supermarket turnover in Mendoza rose 0.5% versus 2024 to ARS 585,783 million, yet it was 10.9% below the same period in 2023 and 10.1% under 2022 in real terms.
• CEPA attributes weaker demand to real wage erosion for registered workers, estimating a 6.5% drop from November 2023 to September 2024 or 7.6% through March 2025 using the ENGHo adjustment requested by the IMF.
• The sales gap versus H1 2023 equals ARS 71,717 million in inflation-adjusted revenue, with lost household income estimated at ARS 895,192–1,493,340 per worker and ARS 401,543 million in total.
• Category performance diverged, with pantry items down 22.3% and meat down 14.2% versus 2023, while produce gained strongly, apparel and footwear exceeded 2023 and 2022 levels after a 15.2% rise year over year, and electronics rebounded 21.6% but remain below 2023.
• Retailers report limiting price pass-through to revive volumes, and the findings draw on INDEC’s supermarket survey and OEDE employment data covering 166 Mendoza outlets within a national panel.