Overview
- The latest Quaest survey, published Monday, shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 42% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with 41% in a simulated second-round matchup, a result the pollster calls a technical tie within a two-point margin of error.
- Quaest also finds Lula at 37% and Flávio at 33% in a first-round test, a narrowing that both campaigns are reading differently as they prepare for voting roughly two weeks away.
- Judicial moves are changing the ballot picture: the Tribunal Regional Eleitoral of the Federal District barred José Roberto Arruda under the Ficha Limpa rule while the Superior Electoral Court accepted Flávio Bolsonaro’s challenge to Lula’s carnival appearance, prompting accusations of selective targeting.
- New reputational hits have rippled through the race, including a video that led Raquel Lyra to apologize for comments about sterilization and the Ministry of Justice’s formal dismissal of Eduardo Bolsonaro from the Federal Police for alleged job abandonment.
- With leading candidates often skipping multi-person debates, the campaign’s final days are likely to hinge on small poll shifts, court rulings over candidacies and the public effect of Bank Master revelations and benefit adjustments such as the recent Bolsa Família increase.