Overview
- TrendForce cut its 2026 notebook shipment outlook to about 173 million units, a 5.4% year-over-year decline, citing surging DRAM costs that restrict pricing and margins.
- The firm warns shipments could drop as much as 10.1% if memory price increases do not ease by the second quarter of 2026 and brands struggle to pass costs to buyers.
- IDC flags a broader PC decline of up to 9% in 2026 under downside scenarios, with shortages potentially lasting into 2027 and average selling prices rising 4%–8%.
- Apple is described as relatively insulated due to its integrated supply chain, predictable demand planning, and long-term procurement that help secure priority memory supply.
- Analysts expect Apple to introduce a lower-cost MacBook in spring 2026 to support unit volumes, while OEMs face spec constraints such as limited RAM upgrades and a panel mix that includes a 7.9% drop in LCD shipments and slower OLED growth.