Overview
- IDC has revised its 2026 forecast to a 16.7% year‑over‑year decline that equals about 200 million fewer phones and expects the second half of 2026 to be the hardest hit.
- Memory manufacturers have reallocated supply and higher fab costs have pushed DRAM and NAND prices upward, which raises the bill of materials for almost every phone.
- The sub‑$100 segment is collapsing as Q2 saw about a 60% year‑on‑year fall and many vendors are cutting low‑end models because their margins are too thin to absorb higher memory costs.
- Large brands and premium models will gain share because they can use scale, financing and repair/refurbish channels to protect sales, while smaller entry‑level Android makers face severe survival pressure.
- Foldable phones are a bright spot with shipments forecast to grow next year, and analysts say the market will likely become smaller in unit volume but higher in value and more top‑heavy once memory supply stabilizes.