Overview
- Tropical Storm Melissa remains nearly stationary about 165–200 miles south-southeast of Kingston with 45 mph winds, and a brief drift north today is forecast to give way to a westward move through Monday near or just south of Jamaica.
- Hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are posted for Jamaica and Haiti’s southwestern peninsula, with forecasters urging preparations to be completed before conditions deteriorate late Friday into Saturday.
- The National Hurricane Center warns of 8–14 inches of rain and life‑threatening flash flooding and landslides, with catastrophic flooding anticipated in southern Haiti and significant flooding risks for Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic.
- Forecasts call for Melissa to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday as wind shear eases over very warm Caribbean waters, with some model guidance indicating potential for Category 4 intensity.
- Longer‑range track confidence remains low; most models keep the core east of Florida after a northward turn toward Cuba and the Bahamas next week, though U.S. impacts beyond hazardous surf remain uncertain.