Overview
- The full assessment, written less than a month before the attack, was published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.
- It judged that Israel had shifted from decisive defeat to short, limited rounds of fighting and was not intent on removing Hamas from power.
- The document advised preparing a new opening strike and an "unexpected" confrontation to unsettle Israeli leadership and break established patterns.
- The analysis was presented to Hamas’s military leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and Mohammad Deif, and reporting says it influenced their decision to proceed.
- Israeli forces discovered the paper during a ground maneuver in Gaza, and it also critiqued Israel’s "war between wars" approach and vulnerability to multi-front pressure.