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Mediterranean Warming and Salinity Increases Are Accelerating, Study Finds

Rapid deep-reaching changes could weaken the basin’s deep-water formation, reduce oxygen in deep layers, and raise coastal storm and flood risk.

Overview

  • Researchers led by Elena Terzić combined temperature and salinity records from 1950–2025, using historical ship profiles, Argo floats and regional observations to build a unified dataset.
  • Statistical analysis shows the rate of warming and salinity rise has accelerated over recent decades and the signal now reaches hundreds to thousands of meters below the surface.
  • The strongest acceleration is in the Adriatic Sea, where southern Adriatic deep waters have warmed far faster than the basin average since 2000.
  • Warmer water holds less oxygen and the observed changes raise risks to deep-sea life, cut the ocean’s ability to absorb CO2, and can feed more intense storms and coastal flooding that affect tourism and coastal communities.
  • The study did not measure causes or oxygen directly, so authors call for targeted process studies and model evaluations to identify drivers such as air–sea heat exchange, evaporation changes, freshwater inputs, Gibraltar exchange, and internal circulation.