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Medicare Increases Set to Trim 2026 Social Security COLA, Renewing Solvency Debate

Rising Medicare charges leave modest Social Security increases with less buying power.

Overview

  • The 2026 Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment is 2.8%, lifting the average monthly benefit by about $56 to roughly $2,071.
  • Expected Medicare Part B premium hikes of about 11.6%—roughly $21.54 a month for typical enrollees—and a reported $17.90 rise in the standard deduction to about $202.90 are projected to absorb a large share of that increase, with high‑income IRMAA payers potentially seeing net declines.
  • Medicare Advantage costs are rising for many enrollees, with local examples such as Kaiser’s basic plan in California’s Alameda County moving from $0 to $19 per month and higher copays for services like hospital stays and ambulances.
  • Advocacy groups note the CPI‑W formula used for COLAs understates seniors’ expenses; using CPI‑E would have yielded an estimated 3.1% adjustment for 2026, highlighting a persistent gap in purchasing power.
  • With the main Social Security trust fund projected to be depleted around 2034, policy ideas include a Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget proposal to cap COLAs for the highest‑benefit recipients, which the group estimates could save about $115 billion over a decade.