Overview
- A 1960 model by Austrian‑American scientist Heinz von Foerster extrapolated global population to a demographic “singularity” around 2026.9, often rendered as November 13, 2026.
- The calculation assumed uninterrupted growth with no natural or human‑made disruptions, a simplification that conditions its result.
- Demographers note the model tracked mid‑20th‑century trends before losing precision as fertility declined and broader demographic shifts took hold.
- Specialists consider a literal collapse in 2026 unlikely because growth has slowed and factors such as family planning, technological change and climate impacts were not included.
- Recent Spanish‑language coverage and social media have resurfaced the date, with some sensational framing, while many reports present it as a caution about resource limits and sustainability.