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4mo ago

Measles Resurgence Threatens U.S. With Endemic Status Within Two Decades

A Stanford-led study warns declining vaccination rates could lead to millions of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths over 25 years.

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A sign reading "measles testing" is seen as an outbreak in Gaines County, Texas, has raised concerns over its spread to other parts of the state, in Seminole, Texas, U.S., February 25, 2025. REUTERS/Sebastian Rocandio/File Photo
One year-old River Jacobs is held by his mother, Caitlin Fuller, while he receives an MMR vaccine from Raynard Covarrubio, at a vaccine clinic put on by Lubbock Public Health Department on March 1, 2025, in Lubbock, Texas.
A view shows MMR vaccine at the City of Lubbock Health Department in Lubbock, Texas, U.S. February 27, 2025. REUTERS/Annie Rice/File Photo

Overview

  • The U.S. has reported over 800 measles cases across 27 states in 2025, including 624 cases and two deaths in a Texas-centered outbreak.
  • Childhood MMR vaccination rates have dropped to 93%, below the 95% threshold needed to maintain herd immunity and prevent outbreaks.
  • A new study projects measles could become endemic in the U.S. within 20 years, with 851,300 cases, 170,200 hospitalizations, and 2,550 deaths over 25 years at current vaccination levels.
  • If MMR vaccination rates decline by 10%, the U.S. could see 11.1 million measles cases over the next 25 years; a 50% drop could result in 51.2 million cases and 159,200 deaths.
  • Misinformation, including claims promoted by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., continues to erode public trust in vaccines, complicating efforts to reverse the trend.