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McDonald’s Faces Modest Q1 Declines as Analysts Eye Midyear Recovery

Projected earnings and revenue reflect pressures from inflation, food safety concerns, and cautious consumer spending, with value strategies expected to drive improvement later in 2025.

A McDonald's restaurant in Martinez, California, US, on Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025. McDonald's Corp. is expected to release earnings figures on February 10. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A view of the McDonald's logo in London, Britain July 27, 2022. REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska
FILE - McDonald's restaurant signs are shown in in East Palestine, Ohio, Feb. 9, 2023. McDonald's reports earning on Monday, July 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar, File)
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Overview

  • McDonald’s is set to release Q1 2025 earnings on Thursday, with analysts forecasting $2.68 EPS and $6.12 billion in revenue, both slightly down from the prior year.
  • The company continues to navigate challenges including inflation, tariff uncertainty, geopolitical boycotts, and the lingering impact of a Q4 2024 E. coli outbreak.
  • U.S. same-store sales are expected to decline for the second consecutive quarter, reflecting cautious consumer behavior and economic uncertainty.
  • Value-focused initiatives, including the $5 meal deal and McValue menu, are aimed at stabilizing traffic, with their full impact anticipated in the second half of the year.
  • Investor confidence remains strong, with analysts from UBS and HSBC reiterating Buy ratings, citing McDonald’s scale, brand strength, and defensive positioning in a challenging market.