Mazzucato Draft Fuels Debate Over Feasibility of Plan México

The circulated draft links proposed tax increases to an eight‑axis, mission‑oriented state plan to boost investment but leaves open who commissioned it and whether Mexico’s weakened institutions can deliver.

Overview

Last week Mariana Mazzucato presented a draft titled “State Transformation for Plan México” that lays out an eight‑axis, mission‑oriented architecture for the government to steer industry, innovation and public procurement.
The document includes concrete fiscal measures: a one percentage‑point rise in VAT and one‑point increases in personal and corporate income taxes, estimated to raise about 0.85% of GDP (roughly 300 billion pesos).
Coverage is divided over commissioning: some reports say Mazzucato’s team was hired in May 2025 to advise on Plan México while other accounts and officials say the circulated draft was not commissioned by the economic team and may be a think‑tank proposal.
Critics say the draft overestimates state capacity and omits scrutiny of corruption, pointing to long‑term institutional erosion under the 4T administration and high‑profile procurement overruns at projects like Dos Bocas and Tren Maya.
The debate focuses on a concrete policy gap—Plan México aims for 25% of GDP in investment but Q1 2026 investment was 21.1%—and on whether the proposed tax and financing tools, paired with stronger development banking and procurement, can realistically close that shortfall.