Overview
- The prediction tool combines age, sex, APOE-ε4 status and amyloid PET centiloid values to estimate 10-year and lifetime risk of mild cognitive impairment and dementia.
- Amyloid burden measured on PET was the strongest single predictor, with absolute risk increasing continuously as centiloid values rose.
- Women and APOE-ε4 carriers showed higher lifetime risk, with example estimates for some 75-year-old female carriers exceeding 80% when amyloid was high.
- Researchers analyzed 5,858 participants and leveraged medical records to capture outcomes after dropout, though the largely White cohort limits generalizability.
- Investigators emphasize the model is a research instrument rather than a diagnostic test, and they plan to explore blood-based biomarkers to improve accessibility.