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Mayo Clinic Model Estimates 10-Year and Lifetime Alzheimer’s Risk Years Before Symptoms

For now it remains a research tool pending broader validation with simpler blood biomarkers.

Overview

  • Published in The Lancet Neurology, the biomarker-anchored model combines age, sex, APOE genotype and amyloid PET to compute individualized 10-year and lifetime risks for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia.
  • Amyloid burden measured by PET had the largest effect on risk, with example estimates showing very high lifetime risk for older APOE ε4 carriers with high amyloid.
  • The analysis used data from 5,858 participants in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging and leveraged medical-record linkage to achieve near-complete outcome follow-up, including among dropouts.
  • Women had higher lifetime risk than men, and carriers of the APOE ε4 variant faced elevated risk for both MCI and dementia.
  • Researchers note limits tied to a predominantly older white cohort and the cost and availability of PET imaging, and they plan validation plus future versions that incorporate blood-based biomarkers.