Overview

• Consumer prices rose 0.1% in May, lifting the annual CPI to 2.4% from April’s 2.3%.
• Core inflation excluding food and energy also increased 0.1% for the month and remained at a 2.8% annual rate.
• New York Fed data show one-year consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in May, though medium- and long-term outlooks stayed above the Fed’s 2% target.
• In a Reuters poll, nearly all economists forecast the Fed will keep its benchmark rate at 4.25%–4.50% when it meets on June 17–18.
• Retailers including Walmart warn that sustained tariffs could drive further price hikes, and Barclays economists predict inflation could near 4% by late 2025 if duties persist.