Overview
- Conservative peer and polling analyst Lord Robert Hayward forecasts Labour losses across English councils, defeat in the Welsh Senedd and a battering in the Scottish Parliament on 7 May 2026.
- Hayward says there may be no single winner, with Reform UK likely to make the largest gains from a low base as the Greens, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru also advance.
- The government has already shifted four mayoral contests to 2028 and has asked more than 60 councils about postponing 2026 local elections to 2027, drawing criticism that voters are being denied ballots.
- Labour’s performance could trigger leadership questions for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, while Kemi Badenoch’s standing appears steadier, with potential Conservative gains in parts of London contingent on which contests proceed.
- Analysts highlight a fractured electorate, record-low trust in governing institutions and devolution dynamics that are eroding the Labour–Conservative duopoly and reshaping outcomes under the first-past-the-post system.