Overview
- Canavan confirmed on Monday that he will nominate for LNP preselection in the Central Queensland seat of Capricornia vacated by retiring MP Michelle Landry.
- He is currently the Nationals leader and holds the second LNP Senate ticket spot in Queensland so a successful move to the House would remove him from a vulnerable Senate contest and improve his prospects for senior roles in a future Coalition government.
- One Nation's party director James Ashby has publicly signalled he may run in Capricornia while One Nation leader Pauline Hanson has ruled herself out of the contest.
- Capricornia was held by the LNP on about a five to six per cent margin at the 2025 election and features mining and energy issues, which Canavan will make central to his campaign messaging against net zero policies.
- The contest now turns on LNP preselection, whether Ashby runs, and primary votes and preference flows that could determine control of a seat seen as pivotal to the Coalition's hopes of changing government.