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Match Group Beats Q4, Guides Q1 Above Estimates as Turnaround Shows Early Traction

Executives flagged AI-driven safety spending that will pressure Tinder revenue in 2026.

Match Group logo and stock graph are seen in this illustration taken, May 1, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Overview

  • Match forecast first-quarter revenue of $850–$860 million, with the midpoint topping the $853.3 million analyst estimate.
  • Fourth-quarter revenue reached $878 million versus $871.3 million expected, and earnings came in at 83 cents per share versus 70 cents forecast.
  • Full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $3.41–$3.54 billion trailed a $3.59 billion consensus as the company prioritizes product investment and faces softness in Asia brands.
  • Paying users fell 5% to 13.8 million in Q4, and the company said Tinder’s direct revenue is likely to decline year over year in 2026 at a pace similar to 2025.
  • Match earmarked about $60 million for AI and product rollouts at Tinder, including the Face Check verification and other trust tools that create a roughly 1 to 1.5 percentage-point near-term monetization headwind, while Hinge grew payers 17% to 1.9 million and plans expansion in Argentina, Chile, Peru and India.