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Massachusetts Projects $650 Million FY26 Revenue Hit From Federal Tax Law

Budget leaders must decide by Oct. 15 whether to revise revenue estimates.

Overview

  • State revenue officials now project the One Big Beautiful Bill will reduce fiscal 2026 tax collections by more than $650 million.
  • Weak early-year receipts, including little to no September growth versus last year, are increasing pressure before the certification deadline.
  • Budget leaders say no decisions have been made on midyear adjustments, with every option under review as they assess the outlook.
  • Potential responses include using an $800–$860 million unspent balance, considering the nearly $9 billion rainy day fund, or decoupling from parts of the federal tax code.
  • Governor Maura Healey previously cut $130 million, extended a hiring freeze, paused a 2% raise, and is holding earmarks, and health officials warn the law could jeopardize coverage for about 300,000 residents over time.