Overview
- Latvian officials say that in early October a masked, armed group operating from Belarus tried to push about 20 migrants across the Belarus–Latvia border and was initially driven back by Latvian security forces.
- Latvia and exile media report that masked individuals later re-entered Latvian territory, damaged a utility distribution box and stole surveillance cameras before returning to Belarus.
- A Telegram video from a group calling itself 'Schwarze Russen' claimed responsibility and framed the move as a test of NATO and the West.
- Analysts cited by Latvian outlets say ties to Russian or Belarusian security services are possible but unproven, and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko has denied state involvement.
- Riga has intensified border measures by extending Operation Werwolf through year-end, deploying radars and drones, and increasing agency cooperation in response to repeated migrant-push tactics on the EU and NATO eastern flank.