Overview
- The median 2026 growth forecast is 2.3%, pointing to moderation after a stronger 2025.
- All surveyed economists expect no policy change in January, and most see no move in April, with 11% anticipating a tightening by July 2026.
- Core inflation is projected at 0.7% and headline inflation at 0.9% in 2025, rising to 1.3% and 1.5% respectively in 2026.
- Geopolitical tensions ranked as the top downside risk, while about four in ten flagged the risk of an AI investment bubble bursting.
- The survey, based on 20 economists polled on Nov. 21, followed data showing Q3 GDP grew 4.2% year on year, with Q4 growth expected at 3.6%.