Overview
- Nonpartisan analysts told lawmakers the next budget now shows a roughly $1.4–$1.5 billion gap for fiscal 2027, reversing a small-surplus expectation from the spring.
- The federal One Big Beautiful Bill produced a $371 million negative swing versus earlier assumptions, including effects from corporate tax cuts and larger state and local tax write-offs.
- Spending is about $800 million higher than anticipated due to Medicaid costs, SNAP cost-sharing changes and growing education obligations.
- Longer-term projections show a $3.1 billion shortfall in fiscal 2028 rising to $3.9 billion by 2031, with the Blueprint fund starting $71 million short next year if unaddressed.
- Options outlined include reducing a Rainy Day Fund deposit or tapping the Fiscal Stabilization Fund, which has already been used for food banks and partial SNAP payments, with updated forecasts due in December and the governor’s budget in January.