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Markets Trim Mexico’s 2025 Growth Outlook to 0.4% as Downside Risks Build

Official forecasts remain rosier than market signals.

Overview

  • Citi’s latest survey pegs 2025 GDP growth at 0.4% and lowers 2026 to 1.3%.
  • Banco de México’s specialists now average 0.39% for 2025 and 1.29% for 2026, according to the November poll.
  • The private-sector group Ceesp says the probability of GDP declines increased for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.
  • INEGI reports the economy contracted 0.3% quarter over quarter and 0.2% year over year in Q3.
  • Gross fixed investment fell 8.4% in September to log 13 straight annual declines, while the government projects 1.0% growth in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 and specialists expect roughly 246,000 new IMSS jobs in 2025.