Overview

• Investors now assign roughly an 80–85% chance to a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September after weak jobs data and a hotter-than-expected July Producer Price Index.
• Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes will reveal internal debates, including dissents by governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman.
• Friday’s Jackson Hole address by Fed Chair Jerome Powell is viewed as the pivotal event for fresh policy guidance and could reshape the trajectory of rate-cut expectations.
• Earnings reports this week from Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s will test consumer strength and show whether companies are absorbing or passing on higher tariff costs.
• Geopolitical developments—from President Trump’s Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin to his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskiy and expanded steel and aluminum tariffs—add risks to inflation and market sentiment.