Overview
- Fed funds futures imply roughly a near-90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Dec. 9–10 meeting, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
- ADP reported U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November, a surprise drop versus expectations for gains.
- Weekly initial jobless claims declined to 191,000, the lowest in more than three years, while a Chicago Fed estimate put unemployment near 4.4%.
- U.S. stocks ended roughly flat and close to record levels as the dollar firmed and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 4.11%; Japan’s Nikkei jumped 2.3%.
- The official November payrolls release is postponed until after the Fed decision, and traders are also watching Friday’s PCE inflation report and reports naming Kevin Hassett as a leading Fed chair contender.