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Markets Slide as U.S. Data Gaps Cloud Fed Path, Ibovespa Slips

A data vacuum after the shutdown is forcing markets to reset rate‑cut odds.

Overview

  • The White House signaled that October CPI and payroll reports may never be published, leaving lasting holes in official data.
  • Fed futures imply a near 50–50 split for December, with CME Group showing 50.6% odds of holding rates versus 49.4% for a cut.
  • Wall Street fell sharply, with the Dow and S&P 500 down 1.65% and the Nasdaq off 2.29% as technology shares led declines.
  • Brazil’s Ibovespa eased 0.30% to 157,162 points after a record rally, as weak September retail sales (−0.3% m/m) and external caution outweighed modest commodity gains.
  • Corporate results were mixed: Hapvida reported a R$51.9 million free‑cash‑flow burn that the CEO called one‑off, JBS posted record quarterly revenue of US$22.6 billion with US$581 million profit, and CPFL Energia recorded R$1.37 billion in net income.