Overview
- Prediction markets have flipped: Polymarket now prices roughly a two‑thirds chance of no change at the Federal Reserve’s Oct. 27–28 meeting, down sharply from odds for an immediate hike earlier this month.
- Senior Fed officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams, urged policymakers to take in more incoming data before deciding on further rate increases.
- A global bond sell‑off pushed the US 10‑year Treasury yield to about 5.34%, raising borrowing costs and keeping financial conditions tight even as October hike odds fell.
- Brent crude climbed back above $100 a barrel because of renewed Middle East tensions and supply worries, adding upside risk to headline inflation and complicating the Fed’s calculus.
- Markets and major banks view the move as a delay rather than a pivot: Goldman Sachs has pushed its next hike forecast to December and December contracts still price a high chance of a 25 basis‑point move.