Overview

• Futures pricing via CME FedWatch shows near-zero odds of a hold for the Sept. 16–17 meeting, with investors largely expecting a 25 basis-point reduction and only a small chance of a larger move.
• Hiring has slowed sharply, with just 22,000 jobs added in August, unemployment up to 4.3%, and BLS revisions showing 911,000 fewer jobs from April 2024 to March 2025 than previously reported.
• Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank now project three quarter-point cuts this year, with Morgan Stanley seeing four consecutive moves through January before a pause to assess inflation dynamics.
• Officials are signaling divisions that could produce rare dissents on both sides, and the Fed’s updated projections are set to clarify how quickly policymakers expect to ease from here.
• Global spillovers are in focus as Reuters reports the PBOC may delay mirroring a U.S. cut, while at home a legal fight over Governor Lisa Cook and uncertainty around nominee Stephen Miran add an unusual governance backdrop.