Overview
- Futures pricing shows more than 87% odds of a 25-basis-point reduction to 3.50%–3.75% at the Dec. 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
- Officials remain sharply divided, with analysts expecting possible dissents as recent remarks by New York Fed President John Williams nudged expectations toward easing.
- Key October jobs and inflation releases were canceled due to the shutdown, forcing reliance on older figures even as the jobless rate ticked up to 4.4% in September.
- The Fed will publish updated 2026 economic and policy projections, offering fresh guidance on the likely rate path next year and beyond.
- Political uncertainty clouds the outlook, with prediction markets pointing to Kevin Hassett as a potential successor to Chair Jerome Powell and a Supreme Court case on an effort to remove Governor Lisa Cook pending.