Overview

• Without a deal by Tuesday night, government funding lapses on Wednesday, with Trump meeting congressional leaders today in a late push to avert a shutdown.
• The September payrolls report due Friday could be delayed if agencies close, raising the risk that policymakers have less official data for their next rate decision.
• U.S. futures and global equities advanced Monday as traders kept the probability of an October Fed rate cut near 89%–90% despite the funding standoff.
• Gold surged to fresh highs around $3,820–$3,850 an ounce as the dollar eased and investors sought safety.
• New U.S. tariffs set for Oct. 1 on items including heavy trucks and certain pharmaceuticals added policy uncertainty, while oil fell on expected OPEC+ output increases and a Kurdish pipeline restart.