Overview
- The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report showed just 29,000 jobs added in September with downward revisions to prior months, a result cited by multiple market reports as the trigger for the move in prices.
- Investors sharply trimmed bets on an October rate increase with CME FedWatch pricing falling to roughly 20–22 percent, lifting equities in Asia, Australia and the U.S.
- Ten‑year Treasury yields initially fell after the jobs surprise but then rebounded toward 5.2–5.3 percent, reflecting technical selling, heavy issuance and lingering inflation concerns.
- Oil kept swinging after G7 ministers agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of crude and diesel and reports of Houthi strikes on Saudi facilities kept supply risks elevated.
- The coming release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes on Oct. 7 is the next key catalyst that could confirm whether markets sustain the reduced near‑term hike odds or reprice tighter policy expectations.