Overview
- Market-implied probability of a 25 bp December cut fell to 49.6%, per CME FedWatch, after comments from Fed officials including Alberto Musalem and Beth Hammack, with Neel Kashkari saying he remains undecided.
- After the steepest one-day drop in over a month led by heavyweight tech, futures pointed lower again Friday (Dow -0.17%, S&P -0.22%, Nasdaq 100 -0.47%) as the VIX hovered near 21.
- Bitcoin slid below $100,000, recently around $96,968 after a 6.5% drop, leaving the token down by more than $450 billion in market value since early October.
- Applied Materials said it expects weaker China spending on chip equipment next year due to tighter U.S. export controls and reiterated a roughly $600 million fiscal 2026 revenue hit.
- The just-ended U.S. government shutdown has left a data drought that could permanently erase some October releases, complicating the Fed’s read on jobs and inflation.