Overview
- Futures now put the probability of a December rate cut near 50%, down from roughly 95% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
- San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly called a decision premature, while Boston Fed’s Susan Collins set a high bar for more easing, highlighting widening divisions.
- White House guidance after the shutdown signaled some October inflation and labor data may never be released, forcing heavier reliance on mixed private indicators.
- Stocks slid and Treasury yields rose as traders scaled back bets on an imminent cut, with major U.S. indexes down about 1.5% to 2.3% on the day.
- Analysts warn the Dec. 9–10 meeting could feature notable dissents whether the Fed cuts or holds, after Chair Jerome Powell said a move next month is far from assured.