Overview
- CME FedWatch shows a 99.9% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction following the Oct. 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- Polymarket prices the same move at about 98% with near-zero odds on a hold or larger shift, and wagers exceed $208 million despite U.S. access restrictions.
- Kalshi places roughly 98% odds on a quarter-point move and points to a two-cut path concentrated in October and December.
- Polymarket assigns about 85% odds to an additional rate cut in December, aligning with broader market expectations.
- A government shutdown has disrupted key data releases, heightening attention on Chair Jerome Powell’s statement, with some economists expecting intentionally cautious guidance.