Overview
- Polymarket and Kalshi price a 75%–80% chance of a funding lapse by Jan. 31, up from about 10% just days earlier.
- Roughly $8.5–$8.6 million has been wagered across the shutdown contracts, underscoring the rapid repricing.
- Senate Democrats say they will not advance a DHS‑attached bill, after the House passed a stopgap 341–81 and following a fatal Minneapolis Border Patrol shooting.
- President Trump called a shutdown “highly likely,” while investors moved to gold and silver and crypto sentiment fell to “Extreme Fear.”
- Analysts warn a shutdown could delay key economic data, strain credit and liquidity, and shave about 0.2% off GDP each week if prolonged, and it may further stall the CLARITY Act, which has already lost Coinbase’s backing.