Overview
- Fed funds futures put the odds of a 25 basis point cut next week around 85% to 90%, according to CME FedWatch.
- ADP reported a November decline of about 32,000 private jobs, a sharp miss versus forecasts for gains and the biggest drop in more than two and a half years.
- Other labor gauges were mixed as initial jobless claims fell to a more than three‑year low while a Chicago Fed estimate kept unemployment near 4.4% and Challenger data showed elevated layoffs.
- Data gaps from the recent shutdown mean investors are waiting for Friday’s PCE inflation release, with the official November payrolls report scheduled after the Fed meeting.
- U.S. indexes finished near flat and close to record highs with sector‑level swings, including pressure on AI‑exposed stocks after a disputed Microsoft sales‑quota report, gains for Meta and Salesforce, and a drag from Amazon.