Overview

• July US CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month (2.7% year-on-year) and core CPI edged up 0.3% (3.1% year-on-year), in line with economists’ projections.
• Futures markets now assign near-certain odds to a September Fed rate cut, driving 2-, 5- and 10-year Treasury yields down by roughly five basis points.
• The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh records while bitcoin vaulted past $124,000 on growing confidence in easier US monetary policy.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and President Trump have publicly urged aggressive easing—including a potential 50-basis-point cut—while Fed officials such as Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee insist policy decisions hinge on incoming data.
• Investors are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole address and upcoming US data releases (PPI, jobless claims, retail sales and payrolls) as potential triggers to validate or overturn current rate-cut expectations.