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1h ago

Markets Price In December Fed Cut as Tech Surges and Yields Ease

Dovish signals from senior Fed officials lifted cut odds to roughly three-quarters ahead of the Dec. 9–10 decision.

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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on November 21, 2025.
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Overview

  • Futures and global stocks extended a rebound with CME FedWatch showing roughly 70%–85% odds of a 25 bp cut in December, up from about 42% a week earlier.
  • New York Fed President John Williams opened the door to a near‑term move, while Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly voiced support for lowering rates next month.
  • Mega‑cap tech led Monday’s gains as the Nasdaq jumped 2.7% and the S&P 500 rose 1.6%, with Alphabet climbing more than 6%.
  • U.S. Treasury yields fell alongside the repricing, with the 10‑year near 4.04% as investors rotated into duration.
  • Policy visibility remains clouded by data gaps from the shutdown—BLS canceled the October CPI—so traders are watching delayed September retail sales and PPI due Tuesday before the FOMC meeting, even as AI valuation worries persist.