Overview

• Jerome Powell delivers his keynote Friday at 10 a.m. ET at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.
• CME FedWatch shows roughly an 83%–85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September as Treasury yields hold steady ahead of the speech and the July Fed minutes.
• Recent data pulled policy in opposite directions, with payrolls up just 73,000 in July and prior months revised down by 258,000, while producer prices jumped 0.9% on the month.
• Evercore ISI warned that a balanced or less‑dovish tone from Powell could trigger a near‑term equity pullback of 7%–15%, while some banks expect a cautious message.
• Fed officials continue to stress a data‑dependent stance, with signs of internal division, and investors will parse Wednesday’s July FOMC minutes for additional clues.