Overview

• Jerome Powell speaks Friday at 10 a.m. ET at the Jackson Hole symposium, delivering a keynote titled “Economic Outlook and Framework Review.”
• FedWatch shows roughly a 73–75% probability of a 25 bp September cut, down from near certainty last week after Fed minutes and cautious official remarks.
• July payrolls rose by about 73,000 with sizable downward revisions to May and June, reinforcing easing hopes even as tariff-linked inflation risks keep the Fed cautious.
• Analysts broadly expect Powell to avoid pre-committing to a cut and warn his tone could swiftly shift currencies, Treasury yields and equities.
• Political pressure has intensified, including Trump’s attacks on the Fed and a reported DOJ inquiry into Governor Lisa Cook, as markets await key PCE, jobs and CPI data before the Sept. 16–17 meeting.