Markets Poised for Global Rate Decisions as Fed Cut Is Priced and Brazil Signals Hold

Overview

• Traders assign roughly 90% odds to a 0.25-point cut by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with attention on the statement, projections and Jerome Powell’s tone given a recent data gap and internal division.
• Brazil’s Copom is widely expected to keep the Selic at 15%, with markets parsing the communiqué for clues on when an easing cycle could begin.
• The Bank of Canada is forecast to leave its policy rate unchanged this week, reinforcing a hold stance across several major central banks.
• Brazil’s Focus survey lowered the 2025 IPCA median to 4.40%—now below the 4.5% ceiling—and lifted 2025 GDP growth to 2.25%, while year-end Selic expectations stayed at 15% and 2026 moved up to 12.25%.
• Asset moves were cautious as European stocks traded mixed and U.S. benchmarks hovered near records; in Brazil, the dollar eased and long rates fell after Friday’s spike tied to Flávio Bolsonaro’s pre-candidacy and remarks about possible withdrawal.