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Markets Poised for Fed’s Third 25-Point Cut With Powell’s Tone in Focus

A rare FOMC split under overt White House pressure leaves the post‑decision path unusually uncertain.

Overview

  • Economists widely expect a 25 basis-point move that would set the target range at 3.50–3.75 percent, following cuts in September and October.
  • Traders are fixated on Jerome Powell’s press conference for guidance on whether easing continues or pauses into 2026.
  • An upside surprise in U.S. job openings to 7.67 million has complicated expectations for further near‑term cuts.
  • Fed officials are publicly divided between hawks worried about persistent inflation and doves prioritizing support for a weakening labor market.
  • President Donald Trump is pressing for faster easing and reshaping Fed leadership, with reports flagging Kevin Hassett as a leading candidate to succeed Powell.