Overview

• Futures point to a 0.25 percentage-point cut to 4.00%–4.25% today, with investors leaning toward additional quarter-point moves in October and December.
• The dollar weakened into Superquarta with DXY and two-year Treasury yields lower, the real hovered near R$5.30 and Ibovespa topped 144,000, though the greenback ticked higher this morning as traders waited for the decision.
• Uncertainty around the vote rose after the Senate confirmed Stephen Miran and a U.S. court kept Lisa Cook on the board, setting the stage for a closely watched split.
• U.S. August data beat forecasts—retail sales rose 0.6% and industrial production 0.1%—without dislodging expectations for imminent easing.
• Copom is expected to hold Selic at 15% as Brazil records a 5.6% unemployment rate, widening the U.S.–Brazil rate gap and supporting carry-trade inflows into local assets.