Overview

• Futures fully price a 25-basis-point reduction on Sept. 17, with only a small probability assigned to a 50-point move.
• Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks and updated projections could shape expectations for an extended easing cycle, with futures already discounting sizable cuts into 2026.
• A Senate vote today on nominee Stephen Miran could add a new voting governor to the Fed, while a court injunction keeps Lisa Cook in place pending an expected Justice Department appeal.
• Global shares hovered near record highs to start the week as traders also looked to policy decisions from the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
• U.S.-China talks in Madrid continued on trade and TikTok, and Chinese regulators said preliminary findings show Nvidia violated conditions of its Mellanox deal as they proceed with further investigation.