Overview

• Futures markets price roughly an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, underpinning recent equity gains
• Minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, released Wednesday, will spotlight the first dual dissent since 1993 by governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman
• Earnings reports this week from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Lowe’s and Ross Stores will reveal the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, corporate margins and demand
• President Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington today, following an unproductive Alaska summit with Vladimir Putin, introduce geopolitical risk that could sway oil and safe-haven flows
• Data on housing permits, starts and existing home sales will further test whether the recent rally can endure shifts in Fed policy and tariff-driven inflation