Overview
- Fed funds futures imply roughly an 85%–90% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the Dec. 10 meeting, according to CME FedWatch.
- Labor signals diverged, with ADP estimating 32,000 private job losses in November while initial jobless claims fell to a more than three-year low and a Chicago Fed estimate kept unemployment near 4.4%.
- The PCE price index and related Commerce Department data are due Friday, while the official November payrolls report will arrive after the Fed meets because of earlier shutdown delays.
- U.S. stocks hovered near record levels and finished mixed Thursday as global markets mostly advanced, helped by prior strength in Japan following robust government bond auctions.
- Investors monitored political risk after reports highlighted concerns that Kevin Hassett, discussed as a potential future Fed chair, could favor more aggressive rate cuts.