Overview

• Futures pricing points to a near‑certain 25‑basis‑point reduction on Sept. 16‑17, with traders leaning toward additional quarter‑point cuts later in 2025.
• August payrolls rose by just 22,000 and the unemployment rate reached 4.3%, while revisions showed 911,000 fewer jobs over the prior year than first reported.
• Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August with annual inflation at 2.7%, and a hotter‑than‑expected CPI print could upend bets on a deeper easing path.
• Morgan Stanley now projects cuts at four consecutive meetings through January, and Deutsche Bank added a third 2025 cut to its outlook.
• Policy paths are diverging abroad as Reuters reports the PBOC may hold off on following the Fed, a Reuters poll sees the BoE holding on Sept. 18 with cuts likely in Q4, and Russia’s central bank trimmed its key rate to 17% while warning inflation is still elevated.